Friday, March 26, 2010

Long-Term Ramifications

Despite the actual economic and Constitutional viability of the Healthcare bill (which has been discussed in great detail in other places), the Democrats may have hurt themselves in the long run by deciding to use up a good deal of their political capital right before a census.

A census only happens once a decade, and usually ends up causing states to do something else: redistrict. Most states redistrict after a census, since that is when they have the best picture of their population makeup. Redistricting, due to the now common practice of gerrymandering (drawing political district lines to the advantage of one party or another), has political ramifications which will affect the next ten years of politics.

Obama, who has gotten some flak for the Healthcare thing, might get hurt not only in the House and Senate this coming November, but in the states as well. Now, who cares about state politics? Well, if the states draw their districts to advantage the Republicans, the next ten years of elections will be tipped, slightly, to the Republicans.

Perhaps Healthcare isn't actually that controversial, and perhaps Democrats will do just fine in the elections this November. All I'm saying is, whoever does well will have an advantage in American politics for the next decade, so if you're old enough to vote, show up for this one.

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